2017 Flounder

If you thought it was bad this year, with the best South Jersey catches being found well before opening day, just wait til next year.
 http://blogs.courierpostonline.com/fishhead/2009/12/16/tough-quotas-set-for-2010/

We will be hammered because of flawed data.

We will be hammered because of the continued, enforced harvest, of our best female breeders.

We will be hammered because of bad science. What do I mean by that? The regulations are ignoring the shift in male/female ratios as the size increases. What does that mean? As we raise the minimum size limit, we are guaranteeing a reduction in the overall female population will which impact future recruitment numbers. This will lead to an effective shutdown of the recreational fishery. Several organizations have scientists engaged to get the statistical data needed to get the fisheries management to see what's going on. But it's probably too late to help in the short run:
2016 Assessment Update: Key Findings

The key findings of the stock assessment update include:

• Fishing mortality rates for summer flounder continue to exceed the fishing mortality threshold, meaning that the stock is experiencing overfishing. The fishing mortality rate in 2014 was estimated to be 16% above the fishing mortality threshold reference point. In 2015, fishing mortality was estimated to be 26% above the threshold. With the exception of 2007, the update assessment reveals a consistent pattern of overfishing since 1981, albeit at a greatly reduced level in last 15 years.
• Estimated biomass has been trending down since 2010. The 2015 estimate of spawning stock biomass is at 58% of the biomass target and only 16% above the minimum stock size threshold. If the stock were to fall below the minimum stock size threshold, the stock would be considered “overfished,” which, under the Magnuson-Stevens Act, would require the development of a rebuilding plan to reduce fishing mortality rates and rebuild stock biomass. If overfishing continues, “overfished” status could potentially be triggered as early as next year.
• In terms of recruitment, the stock has experienced below-average year classes each year for the past six years (2010-2015). Recruitment has also been overestimated in several of the most recent years. For example, in the 2015 update, 2014 recruitment appeared average, but has since been adjusted downward with the most recent update. Recruitment in 2015 is also estimated to be below average.
• For the past several years the assessment has shown a “retrospective pattern,” in this case meaning a consistent pattern of underestimating fishing mortality rates, overestimating spawning stock biomass, and overestimating recruitment. In other words, when the assessment is updated, it reveals that past projections of fishing mortality rates have been exceeded, while projections of spawning stock biomass and recruitment have not been reached. This result is in part due to below-average recruitment to the stock for year classes from 2010-2015, and could also be due to mortality that is not being properly accounted for the assessment.
• Nearly all fishery-independent federal and state survey indices (including recruitment indices) have been decreasing from their most recent peaks over the last 5-7 years, some substantially.